Epidemiologist Michael Osterholm, PhD, director of the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, voiced his concerns about the dwindling vaccination rate recently. On the Apr. 29 episode of his Osterholm Update podcast, the infectious disease expert said states with higher new case rates and lower vaccination rates are the ones that need to “be careful” right now. “We’re watching vaccinations drop precipitously in terms of new vaccinations. For the last four or five days, we have had more people in this country vaccinated for second dose only as opposed to the first dose, indicating that the numbers are coming down,” Osterholm explained. “We’ve got some big holes out there yet.” “I just want us to be cautious here,” Osterholm continued. “I know others will say, it’s not going to surge, I’m blowing this out of proportion. But you look at the numbers yourself. And when we look at this, we see in so many instances the situation where we do have substantial gaps in vaccination. … Certainly some in the Northwest where we’re seeing vaccine hesitancies, others in the South where we’re seeing vaccine hesitancy. So I just raise this point right now that I think we have to be careful to assume we’re done.” Specifically, Osterholm pointed out 14 states that should be on the lookout. For a better understanding of how vaccination rates vary in these states, we looked to Becker’s Hospital Review, which calculated the percentage of people in each state who’ve been vaccinated, using the CDC’s vaccine tracking data as of Apr. 30. Then, we looked at COVID Act Now’s U.S. COVID Risk & Vaccine Tracker to compile new case rates on the 14 states Osterholm is worried about as of Apr. 30 as well. We’ve also included COVID Act Now’s vulnerability level for each state—some of which match Osterholm’s concern, while others do not. Keep reading to find out which states need to be careful, according to the virus expert. (For comparison, right now, Maine has the highest percentage of people vaccinated, with 39 percent, and California has the lowest new case rate, at 4.4 per 100,000 people.) And for more on where COVID cases are climbing, These 4 States Are Seeing the Worst COVID Surges Right Now. How much of the population is fully vaccinated: 23.32 percent Number of new cases: 7.2 per 100,000 people Vulnerability level: Very high How much of the population is fully vaccinated: 25.38 percent Number of new cases: 6.2 per 100,000 people Vulnerability level: High And for more news on COVID in the U.S., 65 Percent of Vaccinated People Who Get COVID Have This in Common, CDC Says. How much of the population is fully vaccinated: 24.41 percent Number of new cases: 12.2 per 100,000 people Vulnerability level: Very high How much of the population is fully vaccinated: 26.99 percent Number of new cases: 12 per 100,000 people Vulnerability level: Low And for more up-to-date COVID news delivered straight to your inbox, sign up for our daily newsletter. How much of the population is fully vaccinated: 26.81 percent Number of new cases: 15.2 per 100,000 people Vulnerability level: High How much of the population is fully vaccinated: 26.62 percentae0fcc31ae342fd3a1346ebb1f342fcb Number of new cases: 8.9 per 100,000 people Vulnerability level: High And if you did get your shot, find out why these are The Riskiest Things You’re Doing After You’re Vaccinated, CDC Says. How much of the population is fully vaccinated: 23.78 percent Number of new cases: 7.3 per 100,000 people Vulnerability level: Very high How much of the population is fully vaccinated: 27.39 percent Number of new cases: 10.5 per 100,000 people Vulnerability level: High How much of the population is fully vaccinated: 29.62 percent Number of new cases: 6.1 per 100,000 people Vulnerability level: Very high And for more on rare breakthrough cases, The CDC Says People Who Get COVID After Vaccination Have This in Common. How much of the population is fully vaccinated: 27.34 percent Number of new cases: 14.7 per 100,000 people Vulnerability level: High How much of the population is fully vaccinated: 24.48 percent Number of new cases: 13.9 per 100,000 people Vulnerability level: Very high How much of the population is fully vaccinated: 26.99 percent Number of new cases: 11 per 100,000 people Vulnerability level: Very high And for more news about the virus, find out why This Vaccine Side Effect Could Mean You Already Had COVID, New Study Says. How much of the population is fully vaccinated: 30.34 percent Number of new cases: 19.5 per 100,000 people Vulnerability level: Very low How much of the population is fully vaccinated: 27.76 percent Number of new cases: 11.3 per 100,000 people Vulnerability level: Very low And for more coronavirus updates, know that This Common Insect Can Carry and Spread COVID, New Study Shows.