On Aug. 17, CNN reported that coronavirus positivity rates are on the rise in the U.S., despite fewer tests being conducted overall. That’s concerning, because an increase in a state’s positive test rate is a major warning sign that a COVID surge is coming, according to Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). “Prior to the surging, you could detect an early increase in the percent positive for any given state,” he said in an Aug. 3 interview with Howard Bauchner, MD, editor-in-chief of the Journal of the American Medical Association. “It’s a good predictor of a surge.” As of Aug. 18, the Johns Hopkins University of Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center lists 32 states that have seen a weekly increase in their positive test rates. (They include Washington as well, but because the state has not provided any positive test data to compare, we’re leaving it off our list.) Many of these states are already experiencing virulent outbreaks, but the rise in testing positivity is a worrying sign that things could soon get worse. Ranking from the lowest to highest current COVID positivity rate, here are 32 states that should be prepared for a surge. And for a state that’s already in trouble, This State Is Now Experiencing the Worst COVID Surge in the U.S. Positive test rate: 4.8 percent And for states in danger of undercounting cases, These 2 States Are “Missing a Lot of Cases,” Harvard Doctor Warns. Positive test rate: 5.0 percent Positive test rate: 5.2 percent And for a reminder that a surge can happen anywhere, A Second Wave of COVID Is “Inevitable” in This Safe State, Experts Say. Positive test rate: 5.7 percentae0fcc31ae342fd3a1346ebb1f342fcb Positive test rate: 6.0 percent Positive test rate: 6.8 percent And for more on one hard-hit state, COVID Is “Expanding” in This State, Leaked White House Document Warns. Positive test rate: 7.1 percent Positive test rate: 7.1 percent Positive test rate: 7.5 percent And for more up-to-date information, sign up for our daily newsletter. Positive test rate: 7.5 percent Positive test rate: 7.5 percent Positive test rate: 7.6 percent Positive test rate: 7.7 percent Positive test rate: 7.8 percent Positive test rate: 7.8 percent Positive test rate: 8.3 percent Positive test rate: 8.8 percent Positive test rate: 8.9 percent Positive test rate: 9.0 percent Positive test rate: 9.2 percent Positive test rate: 9.2 percent Positive test rate: 9.5 percent Positive test rate: 9.6 percent Positive test rate: 9.8 percent Positive test rate: 11.2 percent Positive test rate: 12.0 percent Positive test rate: 12.5 percent Positive test rate: 13.0 percent Positive test rate: 15.9 percent Positive test rate: 16.4 percent Positive test rate: 16.6 percent Positive test rate: 17.1 percent
